Latest News & Insights
Despite mostly bearish news in the market, the November contract, shortly after hitting a six-month low, rebounded to expire on Wednesday at $2.817, a gain of 6.7%. This was largely considered to be a technical correction. Meanwhile, the new December prompt month dipped nearly 5% for the week to close on Friday at $2.898, with the back of the curve lower across the board as well.
Forecasted temperatures appear to be mostly above normal to normal across the country. The EIA posted a much higher than expected injection of 80 Bcf and these things in combination are providing the bearish signals. However, LNG export demand is expected to remain strong and at these price levels producers are talking about ratcheting back production levels. The market is a bit higher this morning to begin the week. Please reach out with any questions.
October Market Report
The October NYMEX contract expired last Monday at the pivotal $3.00 mark exactly to the penny! As the November contract took over, bearish movement pulled the curve down.The new prompt crossed below the $3 mark before rebounding on Friday to close at $3.035, nearly 6% off for the week. The balance of the entire curve was off between threeand six percent as well.
Strong production flows and mild weather are keeping the bulls at bay. The only bearish signal was that while the EIA posted a 64 Bcf injection, which was in line with estimates,we are continuing to eat away at the surplus to the five-year average. Now that we are officially entering the autumn season, those warmer temperatures in the forecast now sendbearish signals as they will minimize heating demand. Please reach out with any questions.
September Market Report
The NYMEX rebounded a bit this week with the September contract settling on Thursday at $2.907, a gain of 4.83%. The October contract took over as the prompt and slid a bit on Friday but was still up for the week 2.74% to close Friday at $2.888. The balance of the curve was slightly higher.
Warmer forecasts extending into September along with another lower-than-expected storage injection from the EIA of just 15 Bcf, vs. the low to mid 20's, were the major bullish drivers. Additionally, modest increases in LNG exports coming from the Freeport facility aided as well. Next Monday is Labor Day, so we will not be producing a report. Please reach out with your questions.
August Market Report
Despite heat domes and hot temperatures blanketing most of the U.S., the market slipped lower last week. The August contract expired on Wednesday at $2.725, down 5% in its final three days of trading. The new prompt September contract drifted lower as well, closing Friday at $2.747 with the back of the curve sliding also.
Warm temperatures and cooling demand have been strong, but the need for gas is being offset by strong output from renewables. Additionally, despite a lower-than-expected injection of 28 Bcf reported by the EIA this week, storage levels are in good shape and production levels continue to be at record highs. Additionally, reduced LNG production and exports are adding to the supply surplus. Please reach out with any questions.